2022 rinogona kunge riri gore guru kune vagadziri vanoisa mari muhunyanzvi uye kugadzirisa maviri ematambudziko makuru eindasitiri: kushomeka kwevashandi uye kusagadzikana kwekutengesa cheni.Getty Images
Mwedzi wega wega Chris Kuehl, International Economic Analyst for Manufacturers and Manufacturers Association.Mutungamiri uye Mutungamiriri weArmada Corporate Intelligence, ari muLawrence, Kan., Akabatana naMorris, Nelson & Associates, Leavenworth, Kan., kutanga Armada Strategic Intelligence System ( ASIS) .Mariri, Kuehl nechikwata chake vanotsanangura chikamu-chikamu chekugadzira chinobata bhizinesi rekugadzira simbi.Anenge ese maindasitiri aya ave nerwendo rurefu mukati megore rose ra2020 na2021.Bhizinesi rakaramba mukutanga kwa2020 nekuda kwezvikonzero zviri pachena, zvichiteverwa kudzoreredzwa kwakasimba, kunyangwe kuderera, sezvo cheni dzepasi rose dzakadzorerwa.Mamwe masimbi ekugadzira simbi ari kubuda ese, asi mamwe asina kusimba sezvaanogona-chero bedzi vaine zvinhu uye vanhu vavanoda kuti basa riitwe ( ona Mufananidzo 1).
"[Tiri kuona] kuenderera mberi kwakasimba pakati-kusvika kwenguva refu kudiwa kwemaitiro mumisika yekupedzisira yatinoshandira, uye kufarira kuri kuita masevhisi edu kubva kune mamwe makambani," akadaro Bob Kamphuis, Sachigaro/CEO/Mutungamiriri weContracts Manufacturing MEC. kufona kwekota nevaisiri mari munaNovember. ”Zvisinei, zvimhingamipinyi zvekambani yedu zvakakonzera kunonoka kugadzira.Izvi hazvisi nekuda kwekushomeka kwezvinhu zveMEC, asi nekuda kwekushomeka kwevatengi veMEC.
Kamphuis akawedzera kuti kupa zvivakwa zveMEC muMayville, Wisconsin uye nehafu yekumabvazuva kweUS neketani yekugovera - kusanganisira iyo yakabikwa zvinhu zvekutengesa - "kwakangokonzera kukanganisa kudiki.Izvi zvinoreva kuti kana vatengi vedu vakwanisa kuwedzera yavo Tichange takagadzirira kana tatengesa. "
Semumwe wevagadziri vakuru vekondirakiti muUS (uye akadzokororwa pachinzvimbo che#1 paThe FABRICATOR's FAB 40 Top Manufacturers list), MEC inoshanda ingangoita indasitiri yese mukufanotaura kwaKuehl pamwedzi weASIS, uye mazhinji ebhizinesi iri anogona kunge ane chekuita neMEC ruzivo.
US metal kugadzira iindasitiri yekugadzira iyo yakasungirirwa kune disruptions cheni.Indasitiri inoramba ichidhonza, ine shungu dzekusimuka.Kudhonza ikoko kungangowedzera kusimba nekuwedzera kwekushandisa kwezvivakwa, nekuda kwemutemo wapfuura muWashington.Global supply. cheni dzinofanirwa kubata, uye kusvika vadaro, inflation inflation icharamba iripo.Nezvose izvi mupfungwa, 2022 richava gore remukana.
Chirevo cheASIS chinotora ruzivo kubva kuSt. Louis Fed's Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) chirongwa chemufananidzo muhombe, data rekugadzira maindasitiri rinofukidza zvese zvinogara uye zvisingaite kugadzirwa. primary metals sector inopa zvinhu zvakasvibirira kune vanogadzira simbi, izvo zvinopa zvikamu kune akasiyana maindasitiri.
Vagadziri pachavo varipo mumhando dzakasiyana-siyana dzinoshandiswa nehurumende kuronga vagadziri, kusanganisira zvigadzirwa zvesimbi zvakagadzirwa, chikamu chinosanganisira zvose zvinosanganisira kuvaka uye kugadzirwa kwesimbi;boiler, tangi uye kugadzira midziyo;neavo vanopa masevhisi kune mamwe masekete.mugadziri wekondirakiti.Chirevo cheASIS hachibatanidzi nzvimbo dzese dzakafukidzwa nevagadziri vesimbi - hapana chirevo chinodaro - asi chinovhara nzvimbo dzekutengesa kune mazhinji anogadzirwa simbi, ndiro uye chubhu munyika. pane izvo indasitiri inogona kutarisana nayo muna 2022.
Maererano neshumo yaOctober ASIS (yakabva munaSeptember data), vagadziri vari mumusika uri nani zvikuru pane kugadzirwa kwese. 2022-asi kukura uku kuchaitika munzvimbo yebhizinesi yakakanganiswa nekukanganiswa kweketani.
Chiratidzo chemushumo chekugadzirwa kwemaindasitiri kwakasimba uye kusiri kwenguva refu kunoratidza kuenzanisa uku (ona Mufananidzo 2) Kufanotaura kwaSeptember ASIS (yakabudiswa muna Gumiguru) kwakaratidza kuti kugadzirwa kwese kwakaderera nechikamu chechikamu chekutanga chegore ra2022, kwakagadzikana, uyezve. yakaderera nezvikamu zvishoma kubva pakutanga kwa2023.
Bato rekutanga resimbi richakura zvakanyanya muna 2022 (ona Mufananidzo 3). Izvi zvinopa mukana wekuita zvebhizinesi zvichidzika pasi pekutengesa, chero vagadziri nevamwe vachigona kuramba vachiwedzera mitengo.
Mufananidzo 1 Iyi snapshot chikamu chekufungidzira kwakadzama kwakaburitswa neArmada's Strategic Intelligence System (ASIS) muna Mbudzi, ichiratidza kufanotaura kwemamwe maindasitiri.Magirafu ari muchinyorwa chino anobva kukufungidzira kweASIS kwakaburitswa muna Gumiguru (ichishandisa data yaGunyana), saka iyo Nhamba dzakati siyanei zvishoma.Zvisinei, Mishumo yaGumiguru naMbudzi ASIS inonongedzera kukusagadzikana nemukana muna 2022.
"Kubva kusimbi kusvika kune nickel, aruminiyamu, mhangura nedzimwe simbi dziri kukanganisa indasitiri, tichiri kuona kukwirisa kwenguva dzose," Kuhl akanyora. "Zvisinei, [kudonha kwa2021] kwakaona kuderera kwemitengo yezvinhu zvakawanda sezvo cheni dzekugovera dzakatanga kuwedzera. bata… Vamwe vatengi vakataura kuti vari kuona kuwanikwa kwechigadzirwa kwakavandudzwa.Asi zvakazara, kuwanikwa kwepasirese kunoramba kuchinetseka. ”
Kubva panguva yekudhinda, United States neEuropean Union vakataurirana chibvumirano chitsva umo mitero yesimbi nealuminium kubva kuEuropean Union ye25% uye 10%, maererano, icharamba isina kuchinja. US ichabvumira huwandu hushoma hwekutengwa kwesimbi-pasina simbi kubva kuEurope.Zvinoramba zvichionekwa kuti izvi zvichave nemhedzisiro ipi pamitengo yezvinhu mukufamba kwenguva.Kune chero chiitiko, vazhinji vanoona maindasitiri havafungi kuti kudiwa kwesimbi kuchaderera. chero nguva.
Pakati pemaindasitiri ese anoshandiswa nevagadziri, indasitiri yemotokari ndiyo inonyanya kuparara (ona Mufananidzo 4) .Indasitiri yakaderera zvakanyanya muchikamu chekutanga nechechipiri che2021 isati yatangazve simba pakupera kwegore.Maererano nekufanotaura kweASIS, kukurumidza uku. icharamba ichisimbisa muchikamu chekutanga uye chechipiri chegore ra2022, isati yaderera zvakare gare gare gore. microchips.
"Maindasitiri anovimba zvakanyanya nechipset akatarisana nemaonero asina kusimba," Kuhl akanyora munaGunyana.
Kuchinja kwenhamba mumotokari yemotokari kunoratidza kuti mamiriro acho ezvinhu akaoma sei.Kufanotaura kwekare kwaiva kuti indasitiri yemotokari irambe yakagadzikana nekukura kuduku kunokosha.Panguva yekunyora, ASIS inofanotaura kukura kune utano hwakanaka muzvikamu zvekutanga, zvichiteverwa ne kuderera gare gare mugore, zvichida mugumisiro wekusagadzikana kwekupa.Zvakare, inodzokera kune microchips nezvimwe zvikamu zvakatengwa.Pavanosvika, kugadzirwa kunotangazve kusvikira ketani yekugovera ichivhara zvakare, inononoka kugadzirwa.
Nzvimbo yezvemuchadenga iri kusimukira nekukurumidza.Sekunyora kwakaita Cool munaGunyana, “Maonero eindasitiri yezvendege anotaridzika zvakanaka, achikwira kusvika kutanga kwa2022 uye achiramba achikwirisa mukati megore rose.Aya ndiwo mamwe emaonero akanaka kune indasitiri yese. "
ASIS inofanotaura kukura kwepagore kweanopfuura 22% pakati pa2020 na2021-hazvina kunyanyo shamisa tichifunga nezve indasitiri yakasangana nayo mukutanga kwedenda (ona Mufananidzo 5). Zvisineyi, ASIS inofanotaura kuti kukura kucharamba kuchienderera muna 2022, paine budiriro huru yekutanga. zvikamu zviviri zvezvikamu.Pakupera kwegore, mushumo unofanotaura kuti indasitiri yemhepo ichakura imwe 22% .Chikamu chekukura chaitungamirirwa nekuwedzera kwekutakura kwemhepo.Ndege dziri kuwedzerawo simba, kunyanya muAsia.
Ichi chikamu chinosanganisira midziyo yekuvhenekesa, midziyo yemumba, uye zvikamu zvakasiyana-siyana zvemagetsi zvine chekuita nekugoverwa kwemagetsi.Makambani anoshandira iyi misika yeniche anotarisana nemamiriro akafanana: pane kudiwa asi hapana kupihwa, uye inflation inflation inoenderera mberi sezvo mitengo yezvinhu ichikwira.ASIS inofanotaura kuti bhizinesi richakura. muhafu yekutanga yegore, zvino inoderera zvakanyanya, uye zvakanyanya sandara pakupera kwegore (ona Mufananidzo 6).
Sekunyora kwakaita Kuhl, "Zvinhu zvakakosha senge microchips zviri pachena zvichiri kushomeka.Mhangura, zvisinei, haina kuita misoro semamwe simbi, "achiwedzera kuti mitengo yemhangura yakakwira 41% gore-pamusoro-gore kusvika Gunyana 2021.
Ichi chikamu chinosanganisira zvigadziriso zvemwenje uye mapeji esimbi evhavha anoshandiswa zvakanyanya muzvivako zvekutengesa, indasitiri iri kurohwa nemaitiro akakura epanzvimbo yebasa.Mikana yekuvaka ine chekuita nekugadzira, kutakurwa, kuchengeterwa zvinhu uye hutano hwakawanda, asi dzimwe nzvimbo dzekuvaka kutengeserana, kusanganisira zvivakwa zvehofisi, dziri kudzikira. ”Kudzokororwa mukuvaka bhizinesi kwave kunonoka sezvo kuvhurazve uye kutangazve basa kwatora nguva yakareba kupfuura yaitarisirwa, "Kuhl akanyora.
Mufananidzo 2 Kukura mukugadzirwa kwemaindasitiri, kusanganisira kugadzirwa kwezvinhu zvinogara kwenguva refu uye zvisingaperi, kungangoramba kwakadzikira mukati megore rose ra2022.Kukura mukugadzirwa kwezvinhu zvinogara kwenguva refu, kunosanganisira kugadzira simbi, kungangopfuura kugadzirwa kwakakura, kunyange zvakadaro.
Indasitiri iyi inosanganisira kugadzira midziyo yekurima pamwe nemamwe akawanda madiki, uye kubva munaGunyana 2021, kukura kweindasitiri ndeimwe yeanonyanya kutaurwa muASIS (ona Mufananidzo 7). nzira yezvikonzero zvitatu, "Kuhl akanyora. Chekutanga, zvitoro, mafekitori uye maassemblers akanonoka 2020 capex, saka vava kubata.Chechipiri, vanhu vazhinji vanotarisira kuti mitengo ichakwira, saka makambani anoda kutenga michina isati yasvika.Chechitatu, hongu. , kushaikwa kwevashandi uye kusundidzira kwemakanika uye otomatiki pakugadzira, zvinhu, zvekufambisa, uye zvimwe zvikamu zvehupfumi.
"Kushandiswa kwemari mukurima kuri kuwedzerawo," Kull akadaro, "sezvo kudiwa kwechikafu pasi rose kuchikonzera kukura kwakakura kwemapurazi ekutengesa."
Mutsara wekugadzirwa kwesimbi unoratidza avhareji, padanho rekambani rega rega, iro rinotsamira zvakanyanya pamusanganiswa wevatengi vechitoro.Vagadziri vazhinji havangoshandire mamwe mativi mazhinji, asi mabhizinesi madiki ane vatengi vashoma vanotyaira mari zhinji. Mutengi mukuru akaenda kumaodzanyemba, uye mari yefekitari yakakunda.
Zvese zvinhu zvinotariswa, mutsara wemaitiro wakadonha pamwe nemamwe indasitiri kutanga kwa2020, asi kwete nezvakawanda. Avhareji yakaramba yakatsiga sezvo zvimwe zvitoro zvainetsekana apo zvimwe zvichibudirira - zvakare, zvichienderana nekusanganiswa kwevatengi uye chii chiri kuitika kutenderedza mutengi. Zvisineyi, kutanga muna Kubvumbi 2022, ASIS inotarisira kuona mibairo inocherechedzwa sezvo mavhoriyamu achikura (ona Mufananidzo 8).
Kuehl akatsanangura indasitiri muna 2022 inobata nekukanganiswa kweiyo mota yekugovera cheni uye kushomeka kwakawanda kwemamicrochips nezvimwe zvinhu. iyo indasitiri yekugadzira simbi muna 2022 inotaridzika zvakanaka.
"Chimwe chezvatinonyanya kukosha ndechekuchengetedza nekuwedzera vashandi vedu vane hunyanzvi kuti vatibatsire kuona kugona kwedu kukura.Isu tinotarisira kuti kuwana vanhu chaivo kucharamba kuchikosha kune ramangwana rinoonekwa mune mazhinji ematunhu edu Matambudziko.Zvikwata zvedu zveHR zviri kushandisa nzira dzakasiyana-siyana dzekuunganidza vanhu, uye sekambani ticharamba tichidyara mari muzvigadzirisheni uye tekinoroji.
MEC's Kamphuis akataura izvi kune vanoisa mari mukutanga kwaMbudzi, achiwedzera kuti kambani yakagadzira kusvika kumamiriyoni makumi mana emadhora mukushandisa mari kune yayo itsva 450,000-square-foot saiti muna 2021 chete. Hazel Park, Michigan chirimwa.
Chiitiko cheMEC chinoratidza maitiro makuru emabhizimisi.Iye zvino kupfuura kare, vagadziri vanoda simba rinogadziriswa rinovabvumira kukwira nokukurumidza uye kupindura kune kusava nechokwadi.Chinangwa chinoputika kusvika pakuwedzera kukurumidza kwebasa, kubva pakatanga kutorwa kusvika kuchiteshi chekutakura.
Tekinoroji inoramba ichiendesa indasitiri mberi, asi zvipingamupinyi zviviri zvinoita kuti kukura kuve kwakaoma: kushaikwa kwevashandi uye kusingatarisike kugovera.Zvitoro zvinobudirira kufamba zviri zviviri zvichaona mafungu emikana yekugadzira muna 2022 uye mberi.
Tim Heston, Mupepeti Mukuru paThe FABRICATOR, akavhara indasitiri yekugadzira simbi kubvira 1998, achitanga basa rake neAmerican Welding Society's Welding Magazine.Kubva ipapo, akafukidza maitiro ese ekugadzira simbi kubva pakutsika, kukotama nekucheka kusvika pakukuya nekupukuta. Akabatana nevashandi veFABRICATOR muna Gumiguru 2007.
FABRICATOR ndiyo magazini inotungamira kuNorth America yekugadzira simbi nekugadzira. Magazini iyi inopa nhau, zvinyorwa zvehunyanzvi uye nhoroondo dzenyaya dzinogonesa vanogadzira kuita mabasa avo nemazvo.FABRICATOR yanga ichishandira indasitiri kubva 1970.
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Nguva yekutumira: Feb-17-2022